orichalcum

So, I've been thinking a fair amount about the 2008 race and the various candidates, and I've decided to support Obama, at least for now. Things may change, obviously, but I wanted to lay out, both for myself and for others, the reasons for my choice.


Winnability: So, first and foremost, I want a candidate who can actually win the presidency in 2008. In 2000, I said, "Well, yes, Gore's the V.P., but he's kinda phoning it in and wooden. i don't think people will vote for him." In 2004, I didn't want to support Kerry because he seemed like an arrogant out-of-touch guy who thought he deserved to be President, and I didn't think he could win.

In this race, particularly, that's an issue for Hillary Clinton. If I thought Hillary could win, I might support her. But I don't - not because she's a woman, but because too many people dislike her, too many other people don't want Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton, and because she seriously lacks charisma. I use the test here of moderate friends like karakara98; if she's dead set against voting for Clinton, I don't think much of the country will either.

Why do I think Obama has winnability? Well, first of all, he's a charismatic guy from the Midwest. I think one of his best selling points is that he's already drawing a lot of support from Republicans and independents; he reaches out to them and isn't perceived as a crazy-liberal like, say, Howard Dean, even though his voting record is highly liberal. He's religious and comfortable talking about his faith publicly (and he's U.C.C., if an odd branch, which makes me like him even more.) I think the only people who will actively vote against him on non-policy or experience grounds (as opposed to for someone else) are racists, and frankly, it's not like Clinton or Edwards will get their votes either. Yes, he'll get smeared by the Rove machine, but he's already proved much better at rolling with the punches than thin-skinned folks like Kerry. The first joke he tells is always about his own name, for instance. He's openly admitted his drug use as a teenager, rather than trying to conceal or minimize it. He speaks the language of redemption very well.

Policies: So, there's not a lot to distinguish among Dem. candidates on this point, and I'd be pretty happy with any of them. However, I do give Obama serious credit for having the cojones to denounce the Iraq War as dumb back in 2002, rather than hiding in fear like so many other Democratic politicians did even though they knew darn well what was going on. In general, he's also highly focused on the practical application of ideals - taking health care one step at a time, convincing IL farmers to grow switchgrass rather than the more costly corn for ethanol, but still protecting them from Brazilian ethanol, increasing Pell Grants and rewarding high-performing teachers, increasing child support enforcement and cracking down on domestic violence.


Life Story: So, I read _Dreams from My Father._ What struck me most was the realization that Obama is very much part of the generation that grew up in the early 70's, post-baby-boom, who to me have often seemed somewhat out of place or lost. They were left out of the transformative years of the late 50s and 60s and grew up among the disillusion of the 70s and 80s, without having the kind of stability provided by the end of the Cold War or the prosperity of the 90s. I have younger uncles and aunts in this group, and most of my supervisors are and will continue to be from this mini-generation. Obama's autobiography is significantly about realizing his own lack of foundation and finding a new one for himself, in Kenya and in Chicago's South Side, among his wife's family. It is the writing of someone who knows who he is and is thus willing to accept weaknesses and compromises from others. Fundamentally, Obama's autobiography (though written in 1994) shows him to be the complete antithesis of George W. Bush - someone who is flexible, who makes friends and allies with people from an enormous variety of backgrounds, who is secure in his confidence, who is personally very intelligent, and who despises violent solutions to conflicts. And heaven knows, whoever is president in 2008 will have a heckuva mess to cleanup, and needs to be someone who is not dogmatic and prickly.


Obama is the candidate of hope and dreams, not of cautious triangulation and political maneuvering. We tried that with Kerry; it failed, and thousands, maybe tens of thousands, of people have lost their lives as a result. I'm voting for a new beginning this time around.