orichalcum

It continues to impress me that Earl and Cassandra are so secure despite their relative incompetence at challenges; it really is very little about how good you are at the games, at least at this stage.

So, going into the final six, we have what appears on first glance to be an inner alliance - Earl, Yau Man, and Cassandra - and an outer circle - Dreamz, Boo, and Stacy. Initial logic suggests that D-B-S should ally together to try and knock off one of the core, but I don't think that's precisely going to happen, because the actual alliances are somewhat more complicated.

My view of the current alliances:

Earl: Close to Yau and Cassandra. No significant dislikes, though least favs are probably Stacy and maybe Dreamz.* Earl is also playing to win; he's alienated no one currently on the jury, and hasn't, I think, gotten a single vote at TC. Everyone likes Earl.

Cassandra: Close to Earl and Dreamz.* Possible surface alliance with Stacy, though studies suggest that two women in a group of men are more likely to wind up on opposite sides than allied, and she probably remembers Stacy's Mean Girlness. Cassandra is also playing to win, carefully showing compassion to each of the about-to-be-exiled future jury members. She may be weak and indecisive; she may be a master manipulator; it's hard to tell from the edits. (Or why she likes Dreamz.)

Yau Man: Close to Earl and Stacy*. Anti-Boo, apparently, and Dreamz. Yau, however, is doing a very bad job at the popularity contest, between showing people up at challenges, being somewhat cocky, and not really seeming to bond with anyone besides Earl. Also, Yau is open about trying to win and being willing to do whatever's necessary, as opposed to Earl and Cassandra's "honest and nice" approach. I don't think Yau can win when it comes to the jury.

Dreamz: The wild card who no one really trusts. Close to Cassandra.* Anti-Boo, and maybe anti-Yau cuz he's one of the guys who doesn't like it when Yau kicks his ass. Maybe he's really smart; maybe he's just incredibly erratic. He'll probably do badly with the jury, because of being perceived as a traitor.

Boo: Such a big Newfoundland dog of a man. Boo's loyal to Earl, but has no one he's formed a bond with, and hasn't for a while. Boo is expendable, and better hope to keep winning immunity. Until then, though, he's still got a vote. No one seems to like him, so he's unlikely to do well with the jury.

Stacy: Close to Yau, maybe?* But maybe he's just using her. Maybe lightly allied with Cassandra. Anti-Boo, Anti-Dreamz. She knows perfectly well everyone dislikes her.

*: One thing we may not be seeing on screen is the ethnic dynamic of these alliances. It's possible that this is a factor both with Dreamz-Cassandra-Earl and with Yau-Stacy, but we don't know.

So how are things going to play out in the next three tribal councils? Well, Boo's the obvious next target, because he has no allies, and isn't smart enough to try and ally with Dreamz and Stacy, even if they'd go for it. Yau's also a big target, but has protection from the II for at least one vote, and some protection from Earl. Dreamz and Stacy are in precarious positions but each has a powerful ally. Because Yau himself is weaker than Earl or Cassandra, however, Stacy is a more likely target. Furthermore, there's the crucial issue that the players may not realize that the jury will vote on a Final 3, rather than a Final 2, which might seriously affect their strategy.

Immunity can also throw things off seriously. Boo or Stacy getting immunity, or someone besides Earl getting the second II, could change things a lot. If Earl gets it, I don't think it will matter much, because he's not in danger for either of the 2 relevant next votes.

Final 3: Earl, Cassandra, and Dreamz or Yau. Earl and Cassandra are in very good end-game positions; if I were either of them, I'd want Yau as the last jury member, because people won't vote for him in preference to either of them. In any of the scenarios, I think Earl wins, because he gets the votes of all the idiot guys who won't vote for a woman or an old guy - Rocky, Edgardo, Alex, Mookie; he gets Michelle's vote, and that's it. Plus, he probably also can pick up a vote from Boo.

What do people think?